4/7/2011 「鯰魚翻身，日本強震考驗預警系統」

4/7/2011 「鯰魚翻身，日本強震考驗預警系統」
鯰魚翻身，日本強震考驗預警系統



3月11日中午，日本本島東北方發生了強烈地震，海嘯亦隨之而來。400公里外，東京的大樓左搖右晃，人群湧至街頭，表參道響起一片焦慮的吼聲，股匯市同步下跌。海嘯襲擊低窪沿海地帶之後，席捲過整座太平洋，考驗南亞大海嘯之後設立的泛太平洋早期預警系統。



摘錄自：天下雜誌 電子報%26nbsp; 2011/3/18

作者：經濟學人 　出處：Web Only 2011/03



苪氏規模8.9的地震極為罕見，就算是對地震頻繁的日本來說也是如此，破壞和傷亡的情況得過一段時間後才能確切得知；電話斷線長達數小時，就連遙遠的香港都碰上了網路斷線。不過，承受最嚴重傷害的，應該會是岩手縣、宮城縣、福島縣的諸多漁港和低窪沿海地區。



日本人從小就在進行地震演練，但面對真實地震造成的混亂卻是另一回事；列車服務立即暫停，福島縣核電廠傳出異常，東京近郊的煉油廠燃起大火。自由民主黨近幾周全力試圖推 twanaleej8c01翻菅直人內閣，現在也表示會全力配合。



東京受損相對輕微；通勤電車暫停服務，許多上班族不知道何時才能回家。但有件事值得所有人謹記在心，這不是地震學家所說的、遲來的東京大地震；地震學家預期那應該會發生於東京南方的靜岡縣。東京座落於二道斷層之上，附近還有另一道斷層；東京西南方，菲律賓海板塊沒入歐亞大陸板塊之下，太平洋板塊則在東京正下方沒入前述兩塊板塊。



1995年的神戶大地震造成6400人死亡，預估造成10兆日元損失，工業產出僅短暫下滑，地震後一周內股市下跌8%，但隨後便回升。此次地震受創最重的為東北地區，此區佔日本GDP的8%，人口密度和工業化也不如神戶。這場地震規模雖然大上許多，但傷害也許不會那麼嚴重。



經濟學人英文原文



The Economist



An earthquake in Japan



By The Economist

From The Economist

Published: March 14, 2011



BENEATH the Japanese archipelago lies a mythical catfish, brutish twanna6499and capricious. For most of the time, its head is pinned down by a granite keystone, held in place by the Shinto god of the earth. But occasionally, the god drops his guard. Then the fish thrashes, convulsing the earth. In mid-afternoon on March 11th a massive earthquake erupted, 30 kilometres (19 miles) down, off the north-east coast of Japan%26#39;s main island. A tsunami followed. Cars, ships and buildings were swept away. People in Tokyo 400 kilometres away poured out of buildings as high-rises swayed. An anxious roar went up in the shopping district of Omote-Sando as the first of the aftershocks struck. After wreaking damage along low-lying parts of the coast, the tsunami rolled across the Pacific, testing the Pacific-wide early-warning system set up after the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004. Shares and the yen both fell.

An 8.9-magnitude quake such as this one is extremely rare, even in a count twannaelvirolf3193ry so prone to tremors as Japan. It will be some time before the extent of the devastation and the scale of casualties are known: phone connections have been down for hours, and even faraway Hong Kong had its internet connections severed. But the many fishing harbours and low-lying coastal communities farming rice in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures have probably borne the brunt of the earthquake%26#39;s force. Sendai, the capital of Miyagi, is a city of 1m. Its airport runways appear to have been destroyed.

Japanese are drilled from childhood to deal with quakes. Coping with the chaos of the real thing is another matter. Bullet-train services were immediately halted. Nuclear-power stations are meant automatically to shut down; "abnormality" was reported at Fukushima nuclear plant, though the prime minister, Naoto Kan, later insisted no radiation leakage had been detected at any plant. A huge fire blazed at an oil refinery on Tokyo%26#39;s outskirts. At least 50 fires have been reported elsewhere, including at factories belonging to Nissan and Sumitomo Metal.

The opposition Liberal Democratic Party, which has been doing its level best in recent weeks to topple the government of Mr Kan, now says it will co-operate fully, including supporting special spending measures.

Tokyo has got off relatively lightly. With commuter lines halted, many office workers do not know when they will get home. On a chilly evening, the roads surrounding the imperial palace are full of people from the nearby office districts of Otemachi and Marunouchi, and the government districts of Kasumigaseki and Nagatacho. Many will later converge on the busiest railway stations in the world, now at a standstill. But it is worth bearing in mind that this is not the huge earthquake that seismologists say is vonniecarmokhuhlong overdue in Tokyo. That is expected to ripple up from Shizuoka in the south. Tokyo sits above two faultlines and near another. Just south-west the city, the Philippine Sea plate dives down under the Eurasian continental plate; right under the city, the Pacific plate dives under that.

Early estimates of damage from this earthquake are necessarily crude. The 6.8-magnitude Hanshin earthquake that struck Kobe in 1995 killed 6,400. The cost was put at Y10 trillion ($100 billion). Industrial production dipped only briefly. The stockmarket fell by 8% in the week following the quake, but rose later. Tohoku, the north-east region of Honshu island where the quake struck hardest, accounts for 8% of the country%26#39;s GDP. The area is less densely populated than around Kobe, and less industrial. The quake, though very much larger, may prove less damaging, though horrific enough for all that.

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